Investigation: Iran 2026 — Propaganda War Thesis

Status

Ongoing. Project theory (not asserted as proven): Iran may be waging a propaganda war in 2026 by striking its own schools and staging fake "training missions" during the conflict, to frame the U.S. and Israel as aggressors and mobilise domestic and international opinion.

The Minab School Strike (28 February 2026)

Documented Facts

Event: Missile strike destroyed Shajareh Tayyebeh primary school in Minab, southern Iran; ~165 dead, mostly girls aged 7–12.
Context: Opening hours of U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran.
U.S./Israel: Both deny responsibility. Israeli officials stated they were "not aware" of any operations in the area. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth: military investigating; "never target civilian targets."
Satellite imagery: School hit by precision-guided munitions; adjacent IRGC naval compound in Hormozgan (Strait of Hormuz) also struck. School walled off from military base for ~10 years; older imagery shows it was formerly part of the complex.
HRW: Called for war crimes investigation; school's civilian status unchanged by proximity to military facilities.
Iran: IRGC characterised it as U.S.–Israeli aggression; launched "Operation True Promise 4" retaliatory strikes.

Sources: Al Jazeera; NPR; Human Rights Watch; PressTV.

Project Thesis: Iran Self-Strike Propaganda

Hypothesis: Iran may be striking its own schools (or staging/claiming attacks on them) and presenting fabricated "training missions" as if conducted by the enemy, to:

Frame U.S./Israel as war criminals — School strikes maximise moral outrage; denials are easily dismissed as expected.
Mobilise domestic unity — Martyrdom of children consolidates regime support.
Win international sympathy — UN, NGOs, and media amplify civilian casualties; responsibility attribution becomes secondary.
Obfuscate real targeting — If Iran strikes its own territory (e.g. to eliminate dissidents, cover up losses, or destroy evidence), blaming the enemy deflects inquiry.

Fake training missions: The thesis extends to claims of "training" or "exercises" during active war — i.e. Iran may stage or exaggerate enemy "training" operations to portray the U.S./Israel as preparing further aggression, or to justify Iranian escalations as "responses."

Why This Fits the False-Flag Pattern

Both sides use false flags — Not unique to the Deep State or the West. Iran, like all combatants, has incentive to manufacture narratives that serve its ends.
War is deception — Sun Tzu; structural logic of conflict.
Denials are structurally weak — When both sides deny a strike, the party that gains from the narrative (Iran: martyrdom, victimhood) may have executed it.

Caveats

No direct evidence supports the thesis. U.S./Israeli precision strikes on adjacent IRGC facilities could have caused collateral damage or mis-targeting.
Satellite analysis (HRW, NPR) suggests deliberate, precision targeting; mis-targeting of an old military site that now contains a school is plausible.
The thesis is documented as a live hypothesis — to be tested against further evidence, not asserted.

References

Al Jazeera, 3 Mar 2026: "Questions over Minab girls' school strike as Israel, US deny involvement"
NPR, 6 Mar 2026: "Questions remain over whether the US or Israel bombed Iranian school"
HRW, 7 Mar 2026: "US/Israel: Investigate Iran School Attack as a War Crime"
PressTV, 6 Mar 2026: "IRGC shatters US-Israeli propaganda with new operations"

Keywords: #Iran #2026 #Propaganda #Thesis #War